1
du -sh /var/log/journal/
201M    /var/log/journal/
journalctl --vacuum-size=10M
Deleted archived journal /var/log/journal/5fabef35e4144feb92a9d7177b21d4e4/system@5dc54ed9ad1e41a785428a8ae2e88877-000000000000255c-00056318d1d89bc3.journal (80.0M).
Deleted archived journal /var/log/journal/5fabef35e4144feb92a9d7177b21d4e4/system@5dc54ed9ad1e41a785428a8ae2e88877-0000000000018c73-0005657d4e6fa7a7.journal (48.0M).
Vacuuming done, freed 128.0M of archived journals on disk.
du -sh /var/log/journal/
73M /var/log/journal/

Why journalctl --vacuum-size=10M can't delete log until /var/log/journal is 10M?

2

From man journalctl:

Note that running --vacuum-size= has only an indirect effect on the output shown by --disk-usage, as the latter includes active journal files, while the vacuuming operation only operates on archived journal files.

Looks like you have 73M's worth of active journal files.

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