If I have the following directory:
$ ls -a foo
. .. a #a# a~ b b.bkp c .git .hg .svn
and call:
$ tar zcf foo-no-bkp.tar.gz --exclude-backups foo/
The resulting archive still has backup files (even those considered backup files according to the documentation).
$ tar ztf foo-no-bkp.tar.gz
foo/
foo/a~
foo/.svn/
foo/#a#
foo/.hg/
foo/a
foo/.git/
foo/b.bkp
foo/c
foo/b
I am using GNU tar 1.26 on Ubuntu 12.04. What can be wrong? Should it be considered a bug?

~aand see whether it ignores that instead. – Alex Chamberlain Oct 2 '12 at 18:32~afile is included, too. Anyway, I have just seen backup files with a tilde at the end for now... – brandizzi Oct 2 '12 at 19:04